September 13, 2025:
In the last four months, Ukrainian long-range drones have scored several hits on Russian energy production and distribution facilities. Western media have published figures suggesting Ukraine has achieved some success. In August, Ukraine attacked at least 12 large refineries. Those attacks disrupted 17 percent of Russia’s daily oil production capacity, a little over one million barrels a day.
Vladimir Putin has also noticed Russia faces energy shortages, though he doesn’t say why. On September 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is facing a natural gas shortage—and Russia’s winter is on the way. You need natural gas to battle General Winter.
Ukraine’s anti-energy offensive echoes the Allies’ strategic bombing campaign that targeted German oil production in World War II. Despite the best efforts of the 8th Air Force, the Germans managed to keep the oil flowing, but the campaign hurt. The most famous World War II anti-fuel raid occurred on August 1, 1943. Bombers from the 8th and 9th Air Forces hit the oil refineries in Ploiești, Romania. In 1944, Allied tactical air strikes on railroads (fuel cars) and oil depots definitely limited the Germans’ ability to fuel aircraft and panzers.
For a “strategic drone” anti-energy campaign to be effective, Ukraine would have to conduct a sustained aerial offensive targeting and destroying Russian facilities deep inside Russian territory. To sustain the UAV offensive requires building several hundred more long-range drones each month. The drones are expendable, so fuel capacity is one-way. However, the UAVs must be agile and stealthy enough to penetrate 300 to 1,000 kilometers of Russian airspace. Ukraine has demonstrated its current long-range drones can hit oil production targets over 500 kilometers inside Russia and do significant damage. However, military analysts suspect producing the drones for a sustained long-range campaign would require a very large resource commitment.
Ukraine has shown it can produce thousands of indigenous drones very quickly. It’s willing to spend the cash. However, to pursue an effective, sustained anti-Russian energy campaign—one with harsh economic and political impact on the Kremlin—Ukraine needs to be able to use missile and aircraft systems (supplied by the U.S. and other key allies) that currently have range and targeting restrictions. These systems can be used to suppress Russian air defenses so the drones can go deep.
Russia’s September 10 drone probe of Poland might lead to the elimination of weapon range and targeting restrictions. Poland has called the drone penetrations a planned and purposeful attack. The NATO Article 4 consultation would be a first step.
Ukraine’s energy target list does tell the Kremlin that Kyiv understands how crucial energy is to Russia’s economy. Damaging production ultimately affects Russia’s operational forces in Ukraine.
Ukraine has attacked numerous Russian energy targets this month. On September 5, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery. They also hit a large oil depot in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region (an operational strike). Russian authorities in Ryazan claimed they shot down eight drones. Ukraine also struck Ryazan in early August. Subsequently, Ukraine and independent sources claimed that particular refinery’s capacity was cut in half. On September 7, Ukrainian drones attacked the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai Oblast (located along the Black Sea). Drones struck the refinery in July. Ilsky is about 500 kilometers from Ukrainian territory. Drones also hit a major pipeline’s control station (the 8-N pipeline) in Bryansk Oblast. A tank farm near the control station was badly damaged. Reports also claim Ukrainian special forces participated in the Ilsky raid. (AB)