The German government is once again considering compulsory military service—a draft to address current recruitment shortfalls and anticipated military personnel needs over the next several years (three to five years is the likely planning range). The government has made it clear that providing Ukraine with security guarantees requires increasing military manpower. The conscription bill, approved by the German government in mid-August, would draft 110,000 men and assign them to Bundeswehr reserve units. The bill must still be approved by the German parliament. German media indicate that the government would prefer to rely on volunteers. However, it is clear that a draft will be politically unpopular among young Germans. Germany ended compulsory military conscription in 2011—though “suspended” is how the government refers to the 2011 decision. Defense officials have concluded that voluntary recruitment will not meet Germany’s current defense requirements and definitely doesn’t meet NATO and EU defense requirements. In 1991, after the Cold War ended and West Germany absorbed East Germany, the reunited Bundeswehr had nearly half a million troops. Currently, Germany has about 175,000 to 180,000 active-duty military personnel, supported by 50,000 trained and qualified reservists (though one source estimates the number of trained and ready reservists at 30,000). Germany has the EU’s largest economy and population. In an EU-led Ukraine Security Guarantee scenario, German military forces should reflect Germany’s economic and demographic capabilities. They don’t, and raw numbers matter. The German defense ministry’s mobilization plan calls for 260,000 active-duty personnel and 200,000 to 250,000 reservists (who train annually to maintain military skills). The German government knew military expansion was necessary but, until this year, was slow to make the economic and military commitments. After Russia’s February 2022 all-out attack on Ukraine, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany would expand its military forces. Current Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that Germany should have Europe’s largest conventional army. OK. The idea of a large German army may concern some Europeans, and Turkey may object, arguing that Merz means the largest conventional military in EU Europe. However, Europe is now 25 years into the 21st century. Sweden and Finland are NATO members, and Switzerland supports a Europe-wide air and space defense program. Since 1991, Germany has lagged in meeting NATO spending and modernization requirements. Europe now depends on collective defense. To protect Europe from Russian aggression, Germany must rearm. (AB)